Some larger school districts expect graduation rates to stall or fall because many seniors struggled during online learning, even as states and schools nationwide have dialed back graduation requirements to account for hardships brought by the pandemic.

States have waived standardized exit exams and let students repeat 12th grade to make up for pandemic-related learning loss. Teachers and school administrators made home visits to find students on the cusp of graduation who have shown low engagement in class.

Projections show that the efforts may not be enough to shore up graduation rates.

The graduation rate for public high-school students was 86% in 2019, and has been increasing over the past decade, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. The national 2020 and 2021 graduation rates aren’t yet available. The four-year graduation rate for public high-school students has been increasing by about one percentage point a year since 2010-11.

Guillermo Arias-Silguero, first behind woman in sunglasses, graduated on time with his class last week. ‘I’ve been proving myself wrong,’ he said.

Guillermo Arias-Silguero, first behind woman in sunglasses, graduated on time with his class last week. ‘I’ve been proving myself wrong,’ he said.

Photo: Luke Sharrett for The Wall Street Journal

Over the past year, seniors consistently had the lowest percentage of assignment completion rates of any high-school grade level, according to data from Schoolytics, a platform that analyzes student-engagement data. Students said they didn’t learn as much during virtual instruction and had a hard time retaining information.

Jefferson County Public Schools in Louisville, Ky., the state’s largest district with 96,000 students, said 72% of the district’s seniors were on track to graduate as of mid-April, another 17% weren’t meeting some requirements, and 11% were off track. The graduation rate was 83.7% last year.

The district shifted its curriculum this year, asking students to demonstrate they know content through a few assignments, rather than having students complete dozens of tasks. The change has helped students in danger of not graduating show they have a handle on course material, the district said.

On Graduation Day 2021, Seniors Reflect on a Year of Pandemic Learning

On Graduation Day 2021, Seniors Reflect on a Year of Pandemic Learning

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Luke Sharrett for The Wall Street Journal

“We’ve gotten a lot better at drilling down to the most essential standards of a course and personalizing that for a kid,” said Kimberly Morales, the district’s executive administrator of high schools.

Guillermo Arias-Silguero benefited from this approach. At Western High School in Jefferson County last fall, he said he struggled to attend virtual class at times because he was too tired. He balanced working part-time restaurant jobs with school and looking out for his two younger siblings, whom he has helped since his mom died in 2019.

Erin Lincoln, a mental-health counselor at Western High School, has been keeping close tabs on Guillermo to help him cope with the loss of his mother. When Guillermo’s graduation seemed to be in jeopardy in January, they started talking as early as 5 a.m. or as late as 7 p.m., depending on when he was available. Guillermo feared he wouldn’t be able to graduate with his class.

Once school returned in-person two days a week in April, Ms. Lincoln drove Guillermo to school some days so he could complete his work in-person, and more easily get help from his teachers, who also extended deadlines so he could complete the most essential work.

He graduated on time with his class last week. “I’ve been proving myself wrong,” he said.

To make up for pandemic-related learning loss, the commonwealth of Kentucky also gave students and their families the option to repeat a grade. Of Jefferson County’s more than 6,000 seniors, 107 requested an additional school year, Ms. Morales said. While it’s possible fewer seniors will graduate alongside Guillermo compared with prior years, the exact number won’t be known until midsummer, Ms. Morales said. As with other years, seniors have until the end of June to complete any outstanding coursework and earn a 2021 diploma.

Guillermo Arias-Silguero said he struggled to attend virtual class at times, balancing school with part-time jobs and looking after younger siblings.

Guillermo Arias-Silguero said he struggled to attend virtual class at times, balancing school with part-time jobs and looking after younger siblings.

Photo: Luke Sharrett for The Wall Street Journal

In an effort to help students navigate the challenging circumstances, several state legislatures passed laws to adjust high-school graduation requirements. Some states, such as Florida and Ohio, waived the requirement that students complete end-of-year or end-of-course exams to graduate. Other states, such as New York, made these moves through their departments of education.

Dallas Independent School District extended deadlines and allowed students to turn in late work. In mid-April about 35% of seniors were missing at least one of the three main metrics required for graduation, said Susana Cordova, the district’s deputy superintendent.

By mid-May, the on-track graduation rate had risen to 76%. In 2020, the graduation rate was 84%. The district said it is still unsure how many students will need to attend summer school. The school year ends in mid-June.

“A lot of that Saturday school, some of the makeup work for seat time, that’s going to need to take place all the way up through graduation and then we’ll also have summer programming,” Ms. Cordova said.

Erin Lincoln, a mental-health counselor at Western High School, before the school's graduation ceremony on May 27.

Erin Lincoln, a mental-health counselor at Western High School, before the school's graduation ceremony on May 27.

Photo: Luke Sharrett for The Wall Street Journal

Texas allows students three pathways to graduation, with the base program requiring 22 completed classes, or credits, and the other programs requiring at least 26. The district said it is looking at the 22-credit option for more students this year due to Covid-19.

In Ohio, 46% of Columbus City Schools seniors were off track, as of mid-April, to graduate. Graduation ceremonies are taking place through Saturday, and the current graduation rate is 72.06%. The 2020 graduation rate was 81.3%.

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This year, the state of Ohio waived the standardized test requirement for graduation. The district will hold a second graduation ceremony in mid-August for students who fulfill requirements throughout the summer.

Maya Schenk, who just graduated from Glenelg High School in Maryland, said she has found virtual learning taxing. She is concerned about taking a math placement exam before she begins her freshman year at the University of Maryland College Park, because she doesn’t feel as though she absorbed material as effectively as she does during in-person instruction.

“Education as it is right now feels like it’s just memorizing things, but I feel like I can’t even do that in the ways I used to because it’s hard to stay focused staring at screens seven hours a day,” she said.

Maya Schenk, who just graduated from Glenelg High School in Maryland, said she is worried about placement exams as she starts college, after more than a year of virtual learning.

Maya Schenk, who just graduated from Glenelg High School in Maryland, said she is worried about placement exams as she starts college, after more than a year of virtual learning.

Photo: Rosem Morton for The Wall Street Journal

Corrections & Amplifications
Columbus City Schools graduation ceremonies are taking place through Saturday, June 5. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said they are taking place through Sunday. (Corrected on June 5)