Republican President Donald Trump announced in the early morning hours on Friday that he and First Lady Melania Trump had become two of nearly 7.3 million American who have tested positive for the coronavirus.
The news came after one of Trump’s closest aides, Hope Hicks, tested positive for COVID-19. Those who have been in close proximity with the president in recent weeks have since undergone testing or are expected to soon be tested.
Those officials include Vice President Mike Pence, who tested negative for the viral respiratory infection early Friday, and former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden, who shared a debate stage with Trump earlier this week.
Trump’s diagnosis has sent ripples through social media, with people expressing a range of emotions in response to the announcement. Some shared sadness and compassion, others anger and undisguised glee, The Associated Press reported.
The announcement has also raised several questions. Chief among them: Who would take over as commander-in-chief if the president becomes incapacitated by the virus or is too sick to fulfill his duties?
American history offers some insights.
What history tells us
For now, it looks like Trump is capable of performing his presidential duties. White House officials have pointed out that he and the first lady are both well at this time.
The United States Constitution and U.S. presidential history shed some light on what would happen, though, if Trump becomes too ill to act as commander-in-chief.
Under the 25th Amendment, a medically incapacitated president has the option of temporarily transferring power to the vice president and can reclaim his authority whenever he deems himself fit for duty.
Section 3 of the Amendment, which outlines such a procedure, has rarely been used, though.
The section has only been employed in cases where the commander-in-chief was physically incapacitated, including when Republican President Ronald Reagan temporarily handed over leadership to then-Vice President George Bush during his colon surgery in 1985 and twice later when Bush as president was sedated for a colonoscopy, according to the Brookings Institute.
The last time a president suffered a life-threatening wound or illness while in office and the 25th Amendment was on the verge of being used was 19 years ago, when Reagan was shot in an assassination attempt.
While the White House at the time prepared the letters needed to invoke Section 3 of the amendment, they did not wind up signing the documents. Surgeons were able to successfully remove the bullet from the president, and Reagan recovered.
The line of succession
What happens if a president dies in office has been set in stone by the U.S. Constitution for more than 200 years.
Eight presidents have died in office, four from natural causes and four from being assassinated. The reigns of the presidency were handed over to the vice president in each case.
The Constitution said little about presidential succession until the mid 1900s, though, only specifying that the powers and duties of the presidency should devolve on the vice president if the commander-in-chief is removed from office, resigns, is incapable of performing his job or dies.
That constitutional language was shored up in 1947 with the revision of the Presidential Succession Act.
The original act of 1792 had placed the Senate president pro tempore and speaker of the House of Representatives in the line of succession, but in 1886, Congress removed them from that list, according to the U.S. Senate.
On July 18, 1947, Democratic President Harry Truman signed the succession act into law that reinserted those officials but placed the House speaker ahead of the Senate president pro tempore.
Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, therefore, would assume the office of the presidency if both Trump and Pence become unable to serve.
In the spring, the White House said that it had no plan for such an eventuality.
“That’s not even something that we’re addressing,” said Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary. “We’re keeping the president healthy. We’re keeping the vice president healthy and, you know, they’re healthy at this moment and they’ll continue to be.”
Still, Dr. Jonathan Reiner, an analyst for CNN, said during an interview with the news outlet that Pelosi should keep herself safe and employ heightened public health precautions.
“The continuity of government requires that we have a clear leader here. It’s very possible that the president and the vice president could both become sick right now,” Reiner said. “So I would limit activity for the speaker of the House and make sure that she’s really isolated in a relatively sterile environment.”
| Order of Succession: |
|---|
| 1. Vice President - Mike Pence |
| 2. Speaker of the House of Representatives - Nancy Pelosi |
| 3. President Pro Tempore of the Senate - Chuck Grassley |
| 4. Secretary of State - Mike Pompeo |
| 5. Secretary of the Treasury - Steven Mnuchin |
| 6. Secretary of Defense - Mark Esper |
| 7. Attorney General - William Barr |
| 8. Secretary of the Interior - David Bernhardt |
| 9. Secretary of Agriculture - Sonny Perdue |
| 10. Secretary of Commerce - Wilbur Ross |
| 11. Secretary of Labor - Eugene Scalia |
| 12. Secretary of Health and Human Services - Alex Azar |
| 13. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development - Ben Carson |
| 14. Secretary of Transportation - Elaine Chao* |
| 15. Secretary of Energy - Dan Brouillette |
| 16. Secretary of Education - Betsy DeVos |
| 17. Secretary of Veterans Affairs - Robert Wilkie |
*Chao is not a natural-born US citizen, therefore, is ineligible to become acting president.
Trump’s health and the risks of COVID-19
Reiner pointed out this is not the time for Americans to panic. He claimed it is “very likely” the president and first lady, who are currently being quarantined, will recover from the virus.
“The Constitution of the United States has a very well-defined mechanism for transferring power, even temporarily,” he added.
A memo released to the public by Dr. Sean P. Conley, the White House physician, said both Donald and Melania Trump are well at this time and plan to remain at home during their recovery.
“The White House medical team and I will maintain a vigilant watch, and I appreciate the support provided by some of our country’s greatest medical professionals and institutions,” Conley wrote. “Rest assured I expect the president to continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering, and I will keep you updated on any future developments.”
Trump’s age, 74 years old, still presents risks, however.
Older individuals are more likely to develop serious side effects after contracting the coronavirus and are far more at risk of dying from the virus compared to younger patients.
As of Sept. 30, more than 190,000 people had died from COVID-19 in the U.S., and roughly 153,000 were above the age of 65. Nearly 42,000 of the recorded deaths were among people between the ages of 65 and 74, with older men more likely to die than older women, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Many coronavirus patients who are the same age as the president have recovered, though the severity of people’s symptoms and the length of individuals' recoveries have varied greatly.
Citing health experts, The New York Times reported that next week will be crucial in determining the course of Trump’s illness.
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