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DRIVING THE DAY
TODAY IS OCTOBER 1. Congress averted a government shutdown Wednesday. But today is a big day in Speaker NANCY PELOSI and Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN’S seemingly endless quest to inject more than $1 trillion of fresh money into the economy.
PELOSI and MNUCHIN met for an hour and a half Wednesday afternoon to try to reach an agreement, but found many areas that needed work. Here’s what our sources told us remained open, and unsolved: state and local funding (long an issue … Dems want roughly $500 billion, and Republicans are near $250 billion), K-12 funding ($225 billion for Dems, and $150 billion for Republicans) and a host of tax provisions, some related to health care. These are not easy to bridge, and there’s ample skepticism among the onlookers that they will be able to get a deal. And if they do, it’s going to take some time to finish up. Lindsey McPherson at Roll Call had a bunch of the numbers Wednesday night
REPUBLICANS TELL US THE DEAL NEEDS TO BE LESS THAN $2 trillion for it to pass their muster, and Dems want a deal at $2 trillion plus -- so that’s the first issue. Those aren’t firm demands, just the general feeling among the dozens of people we spoke to Wednesday. And even if it’s at $1.6 trillion -- MNUCHIN’S offer -- it faces an incredibly treacherous path in the GOP Senate, where insiders told us it may never make it to the floor.
POLICY IS MADE BY PEOPLE -- a very small set of them. So here’s how we see the incentives at play, at the moment.
-- PELOSI made a calculation a few months ago: The TRUMP ADMINISTRATION was going to come back to the table to negotiate with her on a Covid relief package if she just waited long enough. Some Democrats thought she should buckle and take offers for less than $2 trillion -- she didn’t, and there was some grumbling that she had overplayed her hand. Talks broke down. Then PELOSI moved from $3.4 trillion to $2.4 trillion. And here we are, with talks restarted and the White House back at the table, showing its eagerness to cut a deal.
HERE’S A REALITY THAT’S QUITE CLEAR for PELOSI and House Democrats: JOE BIDEN is the favorite to win the White House, and a better deal isn’t too far around the corner if this falls apart. When PELOSI delayed the vote on her Dem Covid relief bill Wednesday, her leadership team saw it as the speaker giving this one last chance while MNUCHIN was serious, and while White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS was out of the room. It seems as if Democrats will give the talks a few hours this morning, then if they fail, they’ll move to their bill and move on. It would be very hard at this point for Republicans to say with a straight face that PELOSI doesn’t want a deal, given her eagerness at this moment.
BUT MAN, if she gets a deal here, this Congress will be bookended by PELOSI owning the White House: besting President DONALD TRUMP in the shutdown in early 2019, and now this.
-- MNUCHIN WANTS A DEAL. Everyone who interacts with him understands that. He participated extensively in an NYT Mag story about his prowess as a dealmaker -- this story was noticed in the Capitol, and compounded the distaste and dislike for him among Republicans in and out of the leadership. He talks about his relationship with PELOSI -- professional, he says. He has a president who cares little about the details, wants a deal, but faces constraints from Hill Republicans who are saying they’re tired of spending.
BUT MEADOWS IS NEVER FAR AWAY -- he showed up to Capitol Hill on Wednesday, slipping into Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL’S office while MNUCHIN was on the other side of the Capitol talking to PELOSI without him.
-- MCCONNELL IS NOT going to put a bill on the floor that doesn’t command the support of a majority of Senate Republicans -- or damn close to it -- and a bill north of $1 trillion won’t accomplish that. Don’t assume that if TRUMP says jump here, MCCONNELL asks him how high. So if PELOSI and MNUCHIN come up with a deal -- if they come up with anything -- it’s not necessarily cool with MCCONNELL.
LISTEN TO WHAT MCCONNELL is saying. He made clear Wednesday what he thought of the negotiations: They are “very, very far apart.” Do you need him to say more?
IF A DEAL COMES TOGETHER, it will take another week or more to see any action. If PELOSI sees that a deal is in the offing, she’ll go for it and make it happen. If not, talks will peter out until after the election.
AIRLINES are beginning furloughs of tens of thousands of employees today, per WAPO. … WSJ says American and United will cut 32,000 jobs. … GOLDMAN SACHS is laying off 400, per BLOOMBERG.
MARKET WATCH … WSJ: “Stocks Finish Second Straight Quarter of Big Gains”
FOR THOSE WATCHING AT HOME -- The Senate passed a $1.4 trillion bill to extend government funding until Dec. 10. More from Caitlin Emma
YOWZA! -- OUT LATER THIS MORNING: PRIORITIES USA -- the big Dem super PAC -- brought in nearly $100 million in the third quarter. The $92.4 million haul included $59 million in September. This is nearly twice what it raised in 2016.
Good Thursday morning.
DRIVING TODAY: PELOSI’S news conference at 10:45 … House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY at 1 p.m.
A SPACE WORTH WATCHING -- “At White House’s urging, Republicans launch anti-tech blitz ahead of election,” by Cristiano Lima and John Hendel: “The Trump administration is pressuring Senate Republicans to ratchet up scrutiny of social media companies it sees as biased against conservatives in the run-up to the November election, people familiar with the conversations say. And the effort appears to be paying off.
“In recent weeks, the White House has pressed Senate Republican leaders on key committees to hold public hearings on the law that protects Facebook, Twitter and other internet companies from lawsuits over how they treat user posts, three Senate staffers told POLITICO. They requested anonymity to discuss private communications.”
FOGGY BOTTOM VS. THE VATICAN … NYT’S JASON HOROWITZ and LARA JAKES in Rome: “Rebuffed by Vatican, Pompeo Assails China and Aligns With Pope’s Critics”: “The friction broke into the open on Wednesday as Mr. Pompeo arrived in Rome and met with prelates and others who are hostile to Pope Francis, while the Vatican denied him a meeting with the pontiff and rebuffed his efforts to derail the deal with China.
“‘Pompeo asked to meet’ the pope, who turned him down because Francis had ‘clearly said that he does not receive political figures ahead of the elections,’ Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who, as secretary of state, is the Vatican’s second-ranking official, told reporters.
“But to some observers on both sides of the tensions between the Roman Catholic Church and the Trump administration, Mr. Pompeo’s visit is as much about the coming presidential election as about China policy. Mr. Pompeo dismissed that suggestion as absurd, but intended or not, his trip signals that President Trump is on the side of those conservative American Catholics who worry about the church’s direction under Francis and think he is soft on China.”
NBC’S JULIA AINSLEY: “Internal document shows Trump officials were told to make comments sympathetic to Kyle Rittenhouse”: “In preparing Homeland Security officials for questions about Rittenhouse from the media, the document suggests that they note that he ‘took his rifle to the scene of the rioting to help defend small business owners.’”
ON THE TRAIL, POST-DEBATE … NANCY COOK in Duluth, Minn., and MATTHEW CHOI: “Trump basks in cheers of Minnesota rally, far from debate criticism”: “A day after fighting for attention in a nearly audience-free debate, President Donald Trump on Wednesday returned to his safe space: an adoring crowd of hundreds who were happy to declare him the winner.
“Trump visited Minnesota less than 24 hours after the first debate for a fundraiser outside of Minneapolis, followed by a campaign rally in Duluth at an airport hangar. Unlike the previous night, when he was criticized for refusing to condemn white supremacists and for deploying his pugnacious style on the debate stage, Wednesday marked a return to his rallies, where he receives little pushback and tons of applause and feeds off the energy of his base.
“He kicked off the event here by bragging about what he called high TV ratings for the debate, glossing over any criticism or negative headlines about the lack of substantial discussion. ‘Last night I did what the corrupt media has refused to do,’ Trump said. ‘I held Joe Biden accountable for his 47 years of lies, 47 years of betrayal and 47 years of failure. I held Joe accountable for shipping your jobs and dreams abroad and for bowing to the violent mob at home.’ ‘Joe Biden is too weak to lead this country,’ he added.” POLITICO
THE BIDEN BEAT -- “Back in his comfort zone, Joe Biden hits Amtrak and the campaign trail,” by WaPo’s Annie Linskey aboard Joe Biden’s campaign train: “Normal campaigning can feel a little odd after all those months spent mostly campaigning virtually. Biden hadn’t had a day this busy since he essentially sewed up the nomination in March, and it showed.
“As he was speaking in Cleveland, a freight train pulled out of the yard, honking, and Biden went a little off-track. ‘Here comes the train that he’s trying to make sure you . . .’ Biden said, his words, with no clear destination, becoming inaudible as the train honked louder. Later, in Alliance, he referred to the debate in an unusual way. ‘Tables like the one that we saw last night were ones that were set by Trump,’ Biden said. It was not clear what he meant.”
GOP HAND-WRINGING OVER TRUMP … WAPO’S BOB COSTA and MATT VISER: “Belligerent Trump debate performance stokes fears among Republicans about November” … NYT’S ALEX BURNS, JONATHAN MARTIN and MAGGIE HABERMAN: “G.O.P. Alarmed by Trump’s Comments on Extremist Group, Fearing a Drag on the Party”
-- ALEX ISENSTADT and GARY FINEOUT: “Parscale steps away from Trump campaign as wife denies physical abuse”
PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER: “Memory sticks used to program Philly’s voting machines were stolen from elections warehouse,” by Jeremy Roebuck and Jonathan Lai: “A laptop and several memory sticks used to program Philadelphia’s voting machines were stolen from a city warehouse in East Falls, officials confirmed Wednesday, setting off a scramble to investigate and to ensure the machines had not been compromised.
“Though it remains unclear when the equipment was stolen, sources briefed on the investigation said the items vanished this week. The laptop belonged to an on-site employee for the company that supplies the machines. It and the USB drives were the only items believed to have been taken. City officials vowed Wednesday that the theft would not disrupt voting on Nov. 3.”
SWAMP READ -- “Biden transition elevates former Facebook exec as ethics arbiter,” by Alex Thompson and Theo Meyer: “Joe Biden’s transition team named Jessica Hertz, until recently a Facebook executive focused on government regulations, as its general counsel on Wednesday and charged her with navigating conflicts of interest and other ethical issues for the Biden administration-in-waiting — a move that drew immediate fire from the left. …
“Hertz will oversee a team responsible for ‘enforcement, oversight, and compliance’ of the ethics plan that Biden's team also released Wednesday. In it, they promise to reestablish many of the rules President Barack Obama instituted to limit the role of former lobbyists in the 2008 transition — which Biden was also involved in.” POLITICO … Biden’s ethics plan
TRUMP’S THURSDAY -- The president will leave the White House at 12:45 p.m. en route to Bedminster, N.J. There, he’ll participate in a roundtable with supporters at 3 p.m. and deliver remarks at a fundraiser at 3:45 p.m. Trump will then return to Washington, arriving at the White House at 6:30 p.m.
ON THE TRAIL: BIDEN will attend a virtual fundraiser.
PLAYBOOK READS
WHAT RATCLIFFE IS UP TO … ANDREW DESIDERIO and KYLE CHENEY: “National Intelligence chief gave little notice for briefing on Russian assessment”
HELENA BOTTEMILLER EVICH: “Trump requires food aid boxes to come with a letter from him”: “The Agriculture Department last week began mandating that millions of boxes of surplus food for needy families include a letter from President Donald Trump claiming credit for the program.
“The USDA’s $4 billion Families to Farmers Food Box Program has distributed more than 100 million boxes to those in need since May, with the aim of redirecting meat, dairy and produce that might normally go to restaurants and other food-service businesses. But organizations handing out the aid complain the program is now being used to bolster Trump’s image a month before a high-stakes election – and some even have refused to distribute them.
“‘In my 30 years of doing this work, I’ve never seen something this egregious,’ said Lisa Hamler-Fugitt, executive director of the Ohio Association of Food Banks. ‘These are federally purchased boxes.’ The letter comes in both English and Spanish on White House letterhead and features Trump’s bold signature: ‘As President, safeguarding the health and well-being of our citizens is one of my highest priorities,’ it reads. ‘As part of our response to coronavirus, I prioritized sending nutritious food from our farmers to families in need throughout America.’”
PUTIN WATCH ... AP/BERLIN: “Russia’s Navalny accuses Putin of being behind poisoning”: “Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is recovering in Germany after being poisoned in Russia by a nerve agent, accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of being behind the attack in comments released Thursday. Navalny’s supporters have frequently maintained that such an attack could have only been ordered at the top levels, though the Kremlin has steadfastly denied any involvement in it. …
“[Navalny] has posted frequent comments online as his recovery has progressed, but in his first interview since the attack, he told Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine that in his mind, ‘Putin was behind the attack,’ in a German translation of his comments. ‘I don’t have any other versions of how the crime was committed,’ he said in a brief excerpt of the interview conducted in Berlin on Wednesday and to be released in full online later Thursday.” AP
WSJ: “Justice Department Opens Ventilator Antitrust Probe Focused on Medtronic,” by Brent Kendall: “The Justice Department is investigating whether acquisitions by Medtronic limited competition in ventilator manufacturing, according to people familiar with the matter, an antitrust probe that emerged from complaints about device shortages during the coronavirus pandemic. Medtronic has received a civil subpoena from the Justice Department formally requesting more information, the people said.” WSJ
DEEP DIVE -- “A Pro-Trump Militant Group Has Recruited Thousands of Police, Soldiers, and Veterans,” by The Atlantic’s Mike Giglio
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- BOOK CLUB: Gary Ginsberg is writing a book called “First Friends: The Powerful, Unsung (and Unelected) People Who Shaped Our President, and Our Country.” The book will be published by Twelve, an imprint of Hachette, next fall. He most recently ran comms for SoftBank and is a Time Warner, News Corp. and Clinton White House alum.
MEDIAWATCH -- “Chris Wallace Calls Debate ‘a Terrible Missed Opportunity,’” by NYT’s Michael Grynbaum: “‘I’m just sad with the way last night turned out.’ Chris Wallace, the ‘Fox News Sunday’ anchor and moderator of Tuesday’s melee of a debate between President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr., was on the phone Wednesday from his home in Annapolis, Md., reflecting on — his words — ‘a terrible missed opportunity.’ ‘I never dreamt that it would go off the tracks the way it did,’ he said.
“In his first interview since the chaotic and often incoherent spectacle — in which a pugilistic Mr. Trump relentlessly interrupted opponent and moderator alike — Mr. Wallace conceded that he had been slow to recognize that the president was not going to cease flouting the debate’s rules.
“‘I’ve read some of the reviews. I know people think, well, gee, I didn’t jump in soon enough,’ Mr. Wallace said, his voice betraying some hoarseness from the previous night’s proceedings. ‘I guess I didn’t realize — and there was no way you could, hindsight being 20/20 — that this was going to be the president’s strategy, not just for the beginning of the debate but the entire debate.’”
-- James Surowiecki will write a “Money Talks” column for the business publication Marker. He previously wrote The Financial Page for The New Yorker. Talking Biz News
PLAYBOOKERS
Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].
SPOTTED at a virtual party Wednesday night for Susan Glasser and Peter Baker’s new book, “The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III” ($28.88 on Amazon), hosted by David Rubenstein, Mike Abramowitz and David Marchick: Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Andrea Mitchell, Bob Kimmitt, Cathy Merrill Williams, Chris Christie, Chris Matthews, Daniel Yergin, David Malpass, Jake Siewert, Ken Duberstein, Lesley Stahl, Mack McLarty, Neal Wolin, Dina Powell McCormick, Paula Dobriansky, Meredith Baker, Afsaneh Beschloss, Richard Haass, Sally Quinn, Sylvia Burwell, Tom Brokaw, Tom Nides, Fred Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Don Baer, John McLaughlin, Josh Bolten, Ben Ginsberg, Steve Hadley, Patrick Gaspard, Wendy Anderson, Bruce Andrews and Steve Case.
SPOTTED at the Congressional Coalition on Adoption Institute’s virtual gala Wednesday night celebrating 96 honorees as 2020 Angels in Adoption: former Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), Susan Neely, first lady Melania Trump, Sens. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Jim Risch (R-Idaho), Reps. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), Donna Shalala (D-Fla.) and Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.), Magnolia Earl, Todd Tilghman, Miranda and Luke Caldwell, Dan Fogelman, Chrissy Metz and Sterling K. Brown.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Joshua Whitehouse has started in the White House liaison’s office at the Department of Defense. He most recently was White House liaison at DHS and is a former New Hampshire state representative.
TRANSITIONS -- Andrew Taverrite is now comms director for the Senate Judiciary Dems. He previously was New Hampshire comms director for Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign, and is a Planned Parenthood alum. … Dan Lee has joined the front office of the managing director and chief administrative officer at the World Bank Group. He previously was a strategy officer at the International Finance Corporation, and is a Bush White House and Charlie Baker alum. …
… Francis Reynolds will lead ServiceNow’s global government affairs, public policy and advocacy agenda. She previously was VP and head of government and public affairs at the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America. … Stephan Miller is starting at Kivvit as director of digital strategy. Also joining Kivvit: former New York Gov. David Paterson, Kelly Meissgeier and Josh Vlasto. Announcement … Allan Adler will retire from the Association of American Publishers this month after 24 years. He is currently EVP and general counsel.
BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Rob Seidman, SVP at the Glover Park Group. How he thinks the Trump presidency is going: “To quote Dire Straits, ‘sometimes you’re the windshield, sometimes you’re the bug.’” Playbook Q&A
BIRTHDAYS: Former President Jimmy Carter is 96 … Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) is 47 … Rep. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) is 45 … Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) is 51 … Tommy Andrews, special assistant to the president for legislative affairs, is 34 … WSJ politics editor Ben Pershing is 45 … WaPo’s Jose Del Real … Jennifer Storipan, executive director of the Puerto Rico Federal Affairs Administration, is 41 (h/t Jess Vaughn) … Kenny Cunningham, COO of the Article III Project and founder of Cunningham Communications … Tim Hannegan of HLP&R Advocacy is 57 (h/t Jennifer Poersch) … CNN correspondent Brian Todd … Alex Gleason, VP at Crossroads Strategies (h/t Evan Williams) … AEI’s Joe Antos … Alisa La, special assistant to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (h/t Kristen Hawn) … POLITICO’s Evan Semones, Andy Goodwin, Marie French and Mallory Anne Sheehan … Yousra Fazili (h/t John Hudson) … former British PM Theresa May is 64 …
… Heather Reams, executive director of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions … Brook Ramlet … Michael Knopf, VP at MediaLink (h/t Christian Emanuel) … Laura Fullerton, deputy staff director for the House Foreign Affairs GOP, is 51 … P.G. Sittenfeld is 36 … Scott Eckart … Daniel Clifton ... Cammie Croft, chief community officer at FWD.us … Nayyera Haq, SiriusXM Progress host and proud mom of Zoya (h/t Ben Chang) … Nikolai Wenzel ... Sharon Yang, comms director for Gina Ortiz Jones’ congressional campaign … Rose Lichtenfels … Scott Rosenthal ... David Kerr ... Robert Rosen of the Gates Foundation ... CRC Public Relations SVP Mike Thompson … Joanne Peters … Chad Babin … Eric London (h/t Tim Burger) … Catherine Dennig … Theo Yedinsky … Jeremy Lott ... Candice Rogers ... Gretel Truong ... Susan Peacock ... Lorraine Adams ... Vinh Nguyen ... Chris Berg ... IBM’s Vera Rhoads … Justin Hunter is 52
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