Six months before Election Day, the coronavirus pandemic has done what impeachment did not: Cost President Donald Trump his advantage over Joe Biden in the 2020 campaign.
A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows the former vice president leading Trump nationwide by 6 percentage points, 44% to 38%, a shift from Trump's 3-point lead in the survey as he was being impeached by the House in December. In a contest without a third-party contender, Biden's margin jumps to 10 points, 50% to 40%.
In the previous poll, when Trump led 44% to 41%, Biden was in the middle of a fierce battle for the Democratic nomination. Now he is the party's presumptive nominee.
The findings underscore the challenge the deadly pandemic is posing to the president’s political standing, which has proved durable through investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, a Senate impeachment trial over his dealings with Ukraine and other controversies.
Now Trump's standing may be threatened in the face of questions about the response he and his administration have made to a disease that has cost more than 55,000 lives in the United States and imperiled the nation’s economy.
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“I had to give up watching the White House briefings,” said Democrat Eric Haenfler, 67, a retired music teacher and band director from Gilbert, Arizona, who was called in the poll. “I couldn’t stand to watch him say ignorant things. They were just campaign rallies and gave no information – and what information he was giving was false and sometimes dangerous.”
But Mercedes Nazarian, 29, a political independent and bartender from Savannah, Georgia, said her support for Trump hadn’t been shaken. “I think he’s doing the best to his ability,” she said in a follow-up interview. “I believe it’s out of his control at this point. I mean, nobody can control a virus.”
Trump’s backing in the GOP remains rock-solid: More than nine of 10 Republicans say they will vote for him. But among independents, his standing has plummeted by 18 percentage points since the poll taken in December, to 27% from 45%. (Biden hasn’t won over all those voters. He gained significant 8 points among independents, but one in three now say they are undecided or would vote for a third-party candidate.)
Trump also has lost support by double digits among men, a group that has been part of his political base. While men still back Trump over Biden 46% to 35%, that’s a narrower advantage than in December, when it was 56% to 30%. Women now support Biden 53% to 30%.
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Neither ranked high as a ‘strong leader’
Asked about a half-dozen traits important for a president to have, views of Trump were more firmly set than they were for Biden. That leaves more room for a campaign to define the Democratic challenger in both positive and negative ways.
At the moment, however, the former vice president scored a higher net score (the positive rating minus the negative rating) than the president did on all six characteristics.
The traits were:
- "A strong leader." Neither was seen by a majority of Americans as a strong leader, with 45% saying that described Trump and 52% that it didn't. For Biden, 43% said it described him; 47% said it didn’t.
- "Cares about people like me." Biden swamped Trump when it came to empathy; 57% said it described the former vice president; just 39% said it described the president.
- "Knows how to get things done." Trump fared a bit better. By 51% to 45%, voters said that described him; by 48% to 39% that it described Biden.
- "Stands up for U.S. interests." Biden scored better on what has been a rallying cry for Trump and his troops. By 58% to 34%, those surveyed said that described Biden; by 53% to 43% they said it described Trump.
- "Honest and trustworthy." This was Trump’s worst rating. By more than 2-1, 64% to 31%, those surveyed said that trait didn’t describe him. Views of Biden were better, although not exactly glowing. By 47% to 43%, those surveyed said he was honest and trustworthy.
- "Can work with foreign leaders." Biden was much more likely to be seen as someone who could do this; 64% said it described the former vice president and 45% said it described the current president.
“The poll is clear about which candidate qualities align best with voters,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “A central campaign theme for Trump will be about getting things done, while Biden will shape his campaign around caring about everyday people at home while working best with foreign leaders abroad.”
The poll of 1,000 registered voters, taken by landline and cellphone Tuesday through Saturday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A red flag among African-Americans
The findings also had some red flags for Biden, who since the last poll has emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
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His support among black voters has dropped in a hypothetical three-way race with Trump and a third-party candidate. Although the sample size is small, making precise comparisons unreliable, about two-thirds of African American voters support Biden now; nearly eight in 10 had backed him in December. Those voters didn’t move to Trump, supported by just 8%. But one in four black voters now say they are undecided or would vote for a third-party candidate.
African American voters in the South Carolina primary and on Super Tuesday were crucial in Biden’s primary victories, and analysts agree it’s imperative for him to generate enthusiastic support among them in November. He has promised to select a woman as his running mate, and some activists are urging him to choose a black woman such as U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California, U.S. Rep. Val Demings of Florida or Stacey Abrams, who lost a bid for Georgia governor last year.
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In the wake of the primaries, Biden has made progress in consolidating support among Democrats; 87% of Democratic voters now back him, and he has been endorsed by his primary rivals, former President Barack Obama and others. He has gained ground among voters under 35, a group that had been more likely in the primaries to support U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Now Biden is backed over Trump among younger voters by 50% to 25%.
That said, one in four of those 18 to 34 years old are still undecided or prefer a third-party candidate.
“I don’t have anything against Biden; I was just hoping for something different,” said Kate Elliott, 33, a Democrat from Cincinnati who would have preferred Sanders, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts or Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana – both of whom have endorsed Biden.
But there's no question she prefers Biden over Trump, calling the president's leadership during the pandemic irrational and unpredictable.
“I’ll vote for Biden,” she said, “but with a heavy sigh.”
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