Here we go again.
Weather models are showing early signs of a potential significant heat event on the West Coast in the next seven to 10 days, forecasters said Friday.
While a recent heat wave led to unfathomably high temperatures in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and the farthest reaches of Northern California, this upcoming event will likely be centered over Arizona, Nevada and California, though climate scientist Daniel Swain said temperatures across the West Coast including into British Columbia will be hotter than normal for this time of year.
The next event is still too far out for forecasters to nail down details but meteorologists said preliminary reports indicate conditions won't be as severe as they were in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Canada where hundreds of people died amid sweltering record-breaking temperatures.
"The ENS and GEFS suites continue to advertise a 1.5-2sigma 500mb Ridge taking hold on the Southwest next week, which would put much of #California, and the Desert in a significant heatwave," Remy Mermelstein, a researcher at Cornell University's Environmental Systems Lab wrote on Twitter, referring to weather forecast models. "Not as bad as the last one, but not too fun. #Cawx #Firewx."
The forecast from the National Weather Service's Bay Area office also stated, "It should be noted that this round of heat will not be as extreme as
what the PacNW just saw, but hot nonetheless."
The recent Pacific Northwest and western Canada heat wave ran from late June into early July. In Portland where temperatures soared to 116 degrees, street car service was suspended after power cables melted. Heat-related expansion caused road pavement to buckle and pop loose, including on Interstate 5 in Seattle. The small town of Lytton in British Columbia set Canada’s heat record at just over 121 degrees on June 27, and the next day residents fled due to a wildfire that engulfed the town in flames.
Climate experts said the "heat dome" over the Northwest was yet another example of how human-caused climate change is leading to more extreme weather events and more severe drought.
The warm-up next week will be the result of high pressure over the Four Corners region in the Southwest strengthening and building westward into California.
Weather experts across the West are beginning to release statements on the upcoming heat wave.
"July can really bring the heat," read a statement on Twitter from the National Weather Service office in Hanford, Calif., that oversees the forecast for Yosemite National Park and the San Joaquin Valley. "Another very hot period of weather appears to be on the way with the weekend of 7/10-12 looking especially hot. Highs may equal or exceed the dangerous heat wave of July 2006.
Surfer checking out the waves at Ocean Beach in San Francisco.
Suzanne Dehne/Getty ImagesIn the San Francisco Bay Area, the severity of the heat wave is dependent on whether the ocean breeze continues to blow and if the marine layer continues to hug the coast.
"The big question that surrounds all of this is exactly what effects will be felt at the coast," said Roger Gass, a forecaster with the weather service office in Monterey. "As of now, it looks like it could be similar to what we had a couple weeks ago…when the far interior areas like Lake Berryessa, Cloverdale and Pinnacles National Park saw triple digits and the coast was cooler."
Gass noted that temperatures are more likely to hit the 100s in the Sacramento Valley and throughout the Central Valley.
A large body of research indicates that severe heat waves have been made worse over time by climate change.
"Heat waves are occurring more often than they used to in major cities across the United States, from an average of two heat waves per year during the 1960s to more than six per year during the 2010s," according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. "The average heat wave season across 50 major cities is 47 days longer than it was in the 1960s."
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Another significant heat wave enters West Coast forecast - SFGate
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