Democrats, including Joe Biden, are trying not to jinx themselves as the political tide seems to turn against President Trump.
"Ignore the polls. We can't take anything for granted this November — the stakes are simply too high," Biden tweeted last week.
Biden's plea was prompted by surveys reporting he's got a double-digit berth nationally on Trump four or so months out from the general election. Public opinion averages across the country and in critical swing states suggest it's a tighter race. But the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee's still charging ahead in battlegrounds such as Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And FiveThirtyEight data this week has Biden winning in states worth 368 electoral votes, compared to Trump's 170.
Trump's ebbing political fortunes come as both candidates relaunch their bids following the COVID-19 lockdowns. The White House incumbent, who hosted a massive rally Saturday, returns more battered than his opponent, who's been holding smaller-scale events. Critics have pummeled Trump for his coronavirus response and its effect on the economy since the start of the year. The president's also been hit for his reaction to the civil unrest triggered after George Floyd, a black man, died last month as a white police officer knelt on his neck.
To add insult to injury, former Trump national security adviser John Bolton this week is conducting a media blitz pushing excerpts from his explosive new memoir. In the book, Bolton, a past U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and a Fox News pundit, claims Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to buy U.S. soybeans and wheat to boost farmers in must-win states ahead of November's contest.
The Supreme Court last week ruled against Trump's efforts to dismantle the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program as well, finding its attempts capricious and arbitrary.
Against the backdrop of these blows, Biden's numbers auger well for the former two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator, according to David Axelrod, former President Barack Obama's chief campaign strategist.
"In new Fox News poll, @realDonaldTrump is down 12. He trails among suburban voters by 22 points. He won them by 5 in ‘16. He trails among Indys by 22. He won them by 4 in ‘16. Yes, he leads among white, non-college women by 11. But he won them by 27 in ‘16. #redflashnglights," Axelrod tweeted.
[New: Pollster Nate Silver: 'A Biden landslide is possible']
In new Fox News poll, @realDonaldTrump is down 12.
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) June 19, 2020
He trails among suburban voters by 22 points.He won them by 5 in ‘16.
He trails among Indys by 22. He won them by 4 in ‘16.
Yes, he leads among white, non-college women by 11. But he won them by 27 in ‘16.#redflashnglights.
That survey has 50% backing Biden and 38% backing Trump, provoking the president to call Fox News "terrible" for producing "phony" research. In contrast, Biden only had a 3-point advantage when the pair were at 48% to 40%, respectively, in May. Biden's exponential rise was propelled by his popularity with black voters, women, younger voters, older voters, and those in suburban areas, Fox News found. Meanwhile, Trump is underperforming with white, evangelical Christians and rural voters.
Catholic University of America politics professor Matthew Green told the Washington Examiner the polls were "not good" for Trump. He listed enthusiasm indicators, including voter history and sentiment regarding the economy and the nation's direction, as tell-tale, foreboding data points.
"The momentum is moving in Biden's direction," he said. "If you're seeing independents break toward Biden or those who previously supported Trump breaking toward Biden, that's a stronger sign that Biden's doing well."
Green described Trump as being "in a pit," arguing Biden faced more potential pitfalls because of his front-runner status.
"I am almost certain that Trump will be running a series of ads that portray Biden and Democrats as extremists, who want to abolish all police departments, those kinds of things," he said. "So the Democrats have to be prepared and have to be able to respond. And they also need to think about how they can frame themselves, and how Biden can frame his candidacy in a way that wins over independents and moderate voters."
Biden's tendency to make gaffes and complaints he and his team weren't aggressive enough during the primary could cause problems, Green warned. Their softer approach, in particular, left him vulnerable to a more antagonistic Trump, for instance, in the debates. Situations outside his control, such as an improved economy, could present challenges too.
Former Democratic Charlottesville, Virginia, Mayor Michael Signer similarly advised caution.
"Everyone agrees from the experience of 2016 that the poll numbers are likely out of whack and from watching Trump's penchant to lie, cheat, and steal his way through politics, that the best way to win this election will be fight as if we're behind," said Signer, author of Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege.
"If anything, most folks think there's a danger in the recent polls in that they give Trump an underdog narrative and could give a dangerous and false sense of overconfidence," said Signer, a University of Virginia-trained lawyer, who earned a Ph.D. in political science at the University of California, Berkeley after his Princeton undergrad years.
California-based Democratic National Committee member Bob Mulholland agreed.
"Only 21-year-old Democrats and the older ones who never learn are talking about a Biden landslide," he said. "Most of us have old headlines on our walls — 'McGovern Loses 49 States' and 'Mondale Loses 49 States.'"
South Dakota Sen. George McGovern in 1972 led the Democratic Party through its disastrous run against then-Republican President Richard Nixon. Former Democratic Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984 suffered a comparable whooping at the hands of GOP incumbent Ronald Reagan.
But Mulholland quipped, "However, Trump appears to be losing it mentally."
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