The first Block 5 variant of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket has rolled out to Launch Pad 39A for an inaugural launch that could occur as early as April 7th. Minor delays, however, are extremely likely for the second Falcon Heavy launch attempt ever, with the most likely dates resting closer to April 8-11.
With an appearance noticeably deviating from Falcon 9 Block 5’s more tuxedo-
Above all else, it should be noted that the likelihood of Falcon Heavy Flight 2’s actual launch date slipping is not to say that anything at all is technically or operationally wrong with the rocket or ground support equipment (GSE). Rather, it’s simply a dose of pragmatism for a launch date that was originally approved on the range alongside a static fire on March 31st. In other words, SpaceX was anticipating the need for approximately seven days between static fire and launch, a fairly believable target relative to Falcon Heavy’s first launch flow.
Even if SpaceX completes a flawless Falcon Heavy static fire immediately after the 6 pm EDT window opens, this would give company engineers and technicians less than 72 hours to turn the rocket around for launch as soon as 6:36 pm EDT on April 7th. That process involves a huge amount of work, including the actual static fire, safely
Safely completing that work in ~72 hours is extremely difficult for Falcon 9, let alone a significantly modified Falcon Heavy preparing for the vehicle’s second launch attempt ever. For reference, excluding a few outlier launches, Falcon 9 Block 5’s mean time between static fire and launch is ~4.7 days, while the mode is 5 days (6/10 launches). Outliers include missions like SSO-A, DM-1, and GPS III SV01, all of which required unique care and caution for various reasons. Chances are good that Falcon Heavy Flight 2 will probably improve upon Flight 1, which took several days to complete a static fire and 13 more days before a launch attempt. Still, the rocket is very unlikely to beat Falcon 9 Block 5’s average time-to-launch.
All in good time
There is probably a 5% chance of Falcon Heavy launching on April 7th even if the static fire happens right on time and shows all systems running in the green. If SpaceX is unable to fit a static fire into the April 4th window, that will likely slip to 0%. Either way, we can expect SpaceX to provide an updated launch window or rough estimate as early as today, especially if the static fire test is successfully completed.
In the meantime, drone ship
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https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-falcon-heavy-static-fire-delay/
2019-04-04 10:55:52Z
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